Proskauer's U.S. private credit default index fell to 2.41% in Q3 2026, from 2.51% in Q2. That's resilience, not a clean bill of health. Houlihan Lokey found that 12% of loans to borrowers with $10 million to $20 million of EBITDA were priced below 90% of par in Q2, up from about 1% in 2023. A discounted mark isn't a default, but it shows where lenders see pressure.
For borrowers, the question is no longer whether capital is available. It's whether the financing still works if growth slows, margins tighten, or a refinancing takes longer than planned.
That puts cash flow, debt-service capacity, collateral and lender fit at the center of the conversation. A strong EBITDA story on its own isn't enough.
At Zeonix Capital, we focus on $10 million to $50 million financings. Our view: the transactions that hold up in this market are the ones structured for the business as it runs today, not the forecast at its most optimistic.
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For informational purposes only. This material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or financing, and is not investment, legal or tax advice. Third-party data is believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Zeonix Capital Corporation.